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FC Dnepr Mogilev vs Naftan — Friendlies Clubs 2026

FC Dnepr Mogilev
FC Dnepr Mogilev
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Naftan
Naftan
2/25/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

FC Dnepr Mogilev52%
×Draw24%
Naftan24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Dnepr Mogilev
1.73
Naftan
1.10

FC Dnepr Mogilev creates 57% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 8 away

creates per match

FC Dnepr Mogilev
1.57
Naftan
1.13

allows per match

FC Dnepr Mogilev
1.07
Naftan
1.88

finishing

FC Dnepr Mogilev+0.00on par
Naftan+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Dnepr Mogilev ↓

Naftan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

FC Dnepr Mogilev or draw
76%
FC Dnepr Mogilev or Naftan
76%
Draw or Naftan
48%

Winning margin

FC Dnepr Mogilev wins by 2+
28%
Naftan wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

FC Dnepr Mogilev 1+ goals
82%
FC Dnepr Mogilev 2+ goals
52%
FC Dnepr Mogilev 3+ goals
25%
Naftan 1+ goals
67%
Naftan 2+ goals
30%
Naftan 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

FC Dnepr Mogilev (draw refunded)
68%
Naftan (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Dnepr Mogilev at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

Naftan away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Dnepr Mogilev attack 1.57 + Naftan defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.73

Naftan attack 1.13 + FC Dnepr Mogilev defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

FC Dnepr Mogilev scores more
52%
level
24%
Naftan scores more
24%

FC Dnepr Mogilev at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "FC Dnepr Mogilev will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Dnepr Mogilev vs Naftan

Naftan beat FC Dnepr Mogilev 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on February 25, 2026.