Naftan vs Dinamo Minsk — Premier League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 53+ matches
Naftan21%
Dinamo Minsk55%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Dinamo Minsk creates 78% more chances
Season form · 53 home / 116 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under51
- Over49
Close call
Both teams score
- No50
- Yes50
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Naftan ↓
Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Naftan at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.72 · 53 matches
Dinamo Minsk away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.84 · 116 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Naftan attack 1.06 + Dinamo Minsk defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.95
Dinamo Minsk attack 1.67 + Naftan defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.69
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 55%?"
Dinamo Minsk at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 55% does not mean "Dinamo Minsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Bate Borisov
Shakhter SoligorskDinamo Minsk
FC Vitebsk
Torpedo Zhodino
Dinamo Brest
Neman
FC Slutsk
Gorodeya
FC Isloch Minsk R.
FC Minsk
FC Gomel
FC Luch Minsk
Torpedo Minsk
Smolevichi-Sti
FC Dnepr MogilevIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Statistics
Naftan host Dinamo Minsk on Sunday, 13 October 2024 at 12:00. The match is part of the Premier League 2018/2019 season.
Premier League: Naftan 1–2 Dinamo Minsk
Dinamo Minsk beat Naftan 2-1 in Premier League on October 13, 2024.
Goals: Raí Lopes (9'), A. Suchkov (35'), A. Gavrilovich (63').
The match was played at Stadyen Atlant in Novopolotsk.