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Dinamo Minsk vs Naftan — Premier League 2018

Dinamo Minsk
Dinamo Minsk
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Naftan
Naftan
P. Meleshin 65'
R. Adeola 45+2'
I. Pranovich 39', 6'
4/7/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 3Stadyen Dynama-Juni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Dinamo Minsk61%
×Draw22%
Naftan16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Minsk
1.85
Naftan
0.83

Dinamo Minsk creates 123% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 51 away

creates per match

Dinamo Minsk
1.77
Naftan
0.94

allows per match

Dinamo Minsk
0.72
Naftan
1.94

finishing

Dinamo Minsk+0.00on par
Naftan+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Minsk ↓

Naftan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Dinamo Minsk or draw
84%
Dinamo Minsk or Naftan
78%
Draw or Naftan
39%

Winning margin

Dinamo Minsk wins by 2+
36%
Naftan wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Dinamo Minsk 1+ goals
84%
Dinamo Minsk 2+ goals
55%
Dinamo Minsk 3+ goals
28%
Naftan 1+ goals
56%
Naftan 2+ goals
20%
Naftan 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Minsk (draw refunded)
79%
Naftan (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Minsk at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.72 · 119 matches

Naftan away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.94 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Minsk attack 1.77 + Naftan defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.85

Naftan attack 0.94 + Dinamo Minsk defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Dinamo Minsk scores more
61%
level
22%
Naftan scores more
16%

Dinamo Minsk at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Dinamo Minsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
I. Pranovich
25'
Vladislav Vassiljev
26'
P. Apetenok← M. Shvetsov
33'
Artem Bykov
38'
Artem Sokolovskiy
39'
I. Pranovich
43'
Raí Lopes← V. Vasiljev
44'
A. Selyava← A. Bykov
45+2'
R. Adeola
46'
P. Sedko← A. Sokolovskiy
53'
A. Dzhioev← V. Marukhin
60'
N. Nekrasov← A. Suchkov
60'
K. Badoev← E. Kress
65'
P. Meleshin
66'
G. Zherdev← D. Podstrelov
71'
Aleksey Kharitonovich
89'
Mikhail Kolyadko
90+2'
E. Shedko← R. Paparyha

Statistics

DinamoNaftan
Discipline
3Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0

Premier League: Dinamo Minsk 2–2 Naftan

Dinamo Minsk and Naftan drew 2-2 in Premier League on April 7, 2024.

Goals: I. Pranovich (6', 39'), R. Adeola (45+2'), P. Meleshin (65').

The match was played at Stadyen Dynama-Juni in Minsk.