Naftan 2–2 Bate Borisov: Result & Stats | Coppa

Naftan

AET

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Bate Borisov

7/25/2025

Coppa · Round of 16Atlant Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Naftan5%

×Draw13%

Bate Borisov82%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NaftanExpected goals in this matchBate Borisov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.54

2.67

Naftan

0.54

Bate Borisov

2.67

Bate Borisov creates 394% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 20 away

0.33

creates per match

3.00

2.33

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Naftan

0.33

Bate Borisov

3.00

allows per match

Naftan

2.33

Bate Borisov

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Naftan+0.00on par

Bate Borisov+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naftan ↓

Bate Borisov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–111%

0–215%

0–313%

0–49%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–37%

1–45%

2

2–01%

2–12%

2–22%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–00%

3–10%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (15%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Naftan or draw

18%

Naftan or Bate Borisov

87%

Draw or Bate Borisov

95%

Winning margin

Naftan wins by 2+

1%

Bate Borisov wins by 2+

61%

Team goals

Naftan 1+ goals

42%

Naftan 2+ goals

10%

Naftan 3+ goals

2%

Bate Borisov 1+ goals

93%

Bate Borisov 2+ goals

74%

Bate Borisov 3+ goals

49%

Draw no bet

Naftan (draw refunded)

6%

Bate Borisov (draw refunded)

94%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naftan at home — creates 0.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Bate Borisov away — creates 3.00, concedes 0.75 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naftan attack 0.33 + Bate Borisov defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.54

Bate Borisov attack 3.00 + Naftan defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Naftan scores more

5%

level

13%

Bate Borisov scores more

82%

Bate Borisov at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Bate Borisov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff