Bate Borisov 5–0 Naftan: Result & Stats

Bate Borisov

FT

5 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Naftan

11/23/2025

Premier League · Round 29Borisov Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Bate Borisov58%

×Draw22%

Naftan20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bate BorisovExpected goals in this matchNaftan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

1.01

Bate Borisov

1.91

Naftan

1.01

Bate Borisov creates 89% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 51 away

1.87

creates per match

0.94

1.08

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Bate Borisov

1.87

Naftan

0.94

allows per match

Bate Borisov

1.08

Naftan

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bate Borisov+0.00on par

Naftan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bate Borisov ↓

Naftan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Bate Borisov or draw

80%

Bate Borisov or Naftan

78%

Draw or Naftan

42%

Winning margin

Bate Borisov wins by 2+

34%

Naftan wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Bate Borisov 1+ goals

85%

Bate Borisov 2+ goals

57%

Bate Borisov 3+ goals

30%

Naftan 1+ goals

64%

Naftan 2+ goals

27%

Naftan 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Bate Borisov (draw refunded)

75%

Naftan (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bate Borisov at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.08 · 126 matches

Naftan away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.94 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bate Borisov attack 1.87 + Naftan defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.91

Naftan attack 0.94 + Bate Borisov defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Bate Borisov scores more

58%

level

22%

Naftan scores more

20%

Bate Borisov at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Bate Borisov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff