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Naftan vs Bate Borisov — Premier League 2018

Naftan
Naftan
FT
0 – 7
HT: 0 – 5
Bate Borisov
Bate Borisov
11/12/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 28Stadyen Atlant

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Naftan24%
×Draw25%
Bate Borisov52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naftan
1.00
Bate Borisov
1.61

Bate Borisov creates 61% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 125 away

creates per match

Naftan
1.06
Bate Borisov
1.50

allows per match

Naftan
1.72
Bate Borisov
0.95

finishing

Naftan+0.00on par
Bate Borisov+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naftan ↓

Bate Borisov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Naftan or draw
48%
Naftan or Bate Borisov
75%
Draw or Bate Borisov
76%

Winning margin

Naftan wins by 2+
8%
Bate Borisov wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Naftan 1+ goals
63%
Naftan 2+ goals
26%
Naftan 3+ goals
8%
Bate Borisov 1+ goals
80%
Bate Borisov 2+ goals
48%
Bate Borisov 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Naftan (draw refunded)
31%
Bate Borisov (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naftan at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.72 · 53 matches

Bate Borisov away — creates 1.50, concedes 0.95 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naftan attack 1.06 + Bate Borisov defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.00

Bate Borisov attack 1.50 + Naftan defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Naftan scores more
24%
level
25%
Bate Borisov scores more
52%

Bate Borisov at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Bate Borisov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Naftan vs Bate Borisov

Bate Borisov beat Naftan 7-0 in Premier League on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at Stadyen Atlant in Novopolotsk.