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Naftagas vs Borac Šajkaš — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Naftagas
Naftagas
FT
3 – 1
Borac Šajkaš
Borac Šajkaš
9/21/2024Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 6Stadion FK Naftagas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Naftagas58%
×Draw23%
Borac Šajkaš19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naftagas
1.75
Borac Šajkaš
0.88

Naftagas creates 99% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 60 away

creates per match

Naftagas
1.92
Borac Šajkaš
0.93

allows per match

Naftagas
0.83
Borac Šajkaš
1.57

finishing

Naftagas+0.00on par
Borac Šajkaš+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naftagas ↓

Borac Šajkaš →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Naftagas or draw
81%
Naftagas or Borac Šajkaš
77%
Draw or Borac Šajkaš
42%

Winning margin

Naftagas wins by 2+
33%
Borac Šajkaš wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Naftagas 1+ goals
83%
Naftagas 2+ goals
52%
Naftagas 3+ goals
25%
Borac Šajkaš 1+ goals
59%
Borac Šajkaš 2+ goals
22%
Borac Šajkaš 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Naftagas (draw refunded)
76%
Borac Šajkaš (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naftagas at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.83 · 59 matches

Borac Šajkaš away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.57 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naftagas attack 1.92 + Borac Šajkaš defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.75

Borac Šajkaš attack 0.93 + Naftagas defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Naftagas scores more
58%
level
23%
Borac Šajkaš scores more
19%

Naftagas at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Naftagas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Naftagas 3–1 Borac Šajkaš

Naftagas beat Borac Šajkaš 3-1 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on September 21, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion FK Naftagas in Elemir.