Borac Šajkaš 1–2 Naftagas: Result & Stats

Borac Šajkaš

FT

1 – 2

Naftagas

3/17/2024

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 18Stadion Borac Šajkaš

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Borac Šajkaš43%

×Draw26%

Naftagas31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Borac ŠajkašExpected goals in this matchNaftagas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.21

Borac Šajkaš

1.46

Naftagas

1.21

Borac Šajkaš creates 21% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 60 away

1.51

creates per match

1.33

1.08

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Borac Šajkaš

1.51

Naftagas

1.33

allows per match

Borac Šajkaš

1.08

Naftagas

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Borac Šajkaš+0.00on par

Naftagas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borac Šajkaš ↓

Naftagas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Borac Šajkaš or draw

69%

Borac Šajkaš or Naftagas

74%

Draw or Naftagas

57%

Winning margin

Borac Šajkaš wins by 2+

21%

Naftagas wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Borac Šajkaš 1+ goals

77%

Borac Šajkaš 2+ goals

43%

Borac Šajkaš 3+ goals

18%

Naftagas 1+ goals

70%

Naftagas 2+ goals

34%

Naftagas 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Borac Šajkaš (draw refunded)

58%

Naftagas (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borac Šajkaš at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.08 · 59 matches

Naftagas away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.40 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borac Šajkaš attack 1.51 + Naftagas defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.46

Naftagas attack 1.33 + Borac Šajkaš defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Borac Šajkaš scores more

43%

level

26%

Naftagas scores more

31%

Borac Šajkaš at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Borac Šajkaš will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff