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Nafta vs Maribor — 1. SNL 2026

Nafta
Nafta
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Maribor
Maribor
9/22/20241. SNL1. SNL · Round 9Športni park Lendava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Nafta27%
×Draw24%
Maribor49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nafta
1.19
Maribor
1.67

Maribor creates 40% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 125 away

creates per match

Nafta
1.20
Maribor
1.53

allows per match

Nafta
1.80
Maribor
1.19

finishing

Nafta+0.00on par
Maribor+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nafta ↓

Maribor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Nafta or draw
51%
Nafta or Maribor
76%
Draw or Maribor
73%

Winning margin

Nafta wins by 2+
11%
Maribor wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Nafta 1+ goals
70%
Nafta 2+ goals
33%
Nafta 3+ goals
12%
Maribor 1+ goals
81%
Maribor 2+ goals
50%
Maribor 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Nafta (draw refunded)
36%
Maribor (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nafta at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.80 · 20 matches

Maribor away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.19 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nafta attack 1.20 + Maribor defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.19

Maribor attack 1.53 + Nafta defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Nafta scores more
27%
level
24%
Maribor scores more
49%

Maribor at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Maribor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nafta vs Maribor

Maribor beat Nafta 3-0 in 1. SNL on September 22, 2024.

The match was played at Športni park Lendava in Lendava.