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Maribor vs Nafta — 1. SNL 2026

Maribor
Maribor
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Nafta
Nafta
12/8/20241. SNL1. SNL · Round 18Ljudski vrt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Maribor66%
×Draw21%
Nafta13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maribor
1.95
Nafta
0.73

Maribor creates 167% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 19 away

creates per match

Maribor
2.06
Nafta
0.53

allows per match

Maribor
0.93
Nafta
1.84

finishing

Maribor+0.00on par
Nafta+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maribor ↓

Nafta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Maribor or draw
87%
Maribor or Nafta
79%
Draw or Nafta
34%

Winning margin

Maribor wins by 2+
41%
Nafta wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Maribor 1+ goals
86%
Maribor 2+ goals
58%
Maribor 3+ goals
31%
Nafta 1+ goals
52%
Nafta 2+ goals
17%
Nafta 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Maribor (draw refunded)
83%
Nafta (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maribor at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.93 · 124 matches

Nafta away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.84 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maribor attack 2.06 + Nafta defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.95

Nafta attack 0.53 + Maribor defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Maribor scores more
66%
level
21%
Nafta scores more
13%

Maribor at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Maribor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Maribor vs Nafta

Maribor beat Nafta 4-0 in 1. SNL on December 8, 2024.

The match was played at Ljudski vrt in Maribor.