Nafta 2–2 Brda Dobrovo: Result & Stats | 2. SNL

Nafta

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Brda Dobrovo

M. Rebernik 43'

R. Paku 6'

A. Musić 89'

U. Celcer 69' (pen)

10/12/2019

2. SNL · Round 13Športni park Lendava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Nafta65%

×Draw19%

Brda Dobrovo16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NaftaExpected goals in this matchBrda Dobrovo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.27

1.01

Nafta

2.27

Brda Dobrovo

1.01

Nafta creates 125% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 23 away

2.24

creates per match

1.00

1.02

allows per match

2.30

creates per match

Nafta

2.24

Brda Dobrovo

1.00

allows per match

Nafta

1.02

Brda Dobrovo

2.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nafta+0.00on par

Brda Dobrovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nafta ↓

Brda Dobrovo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Nafta or draw

84%

Nafta or Brda Dobrovo

81%

Draw or Brda Dobrovo

35%

Winning margin

Nafta wins by 2+

42%

Brda Dobrovo wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Nafta 1+ goals

90%

Nafta 2+ goals

66%

Nafta 3+ goals

39%

Brda Dobrovo 1+ goals

64%

Brda Dobrovo 2+ goals

27%

Brda Dobrovo 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Nafta (draw refunded)

81%

Brda Dobrovo (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nafta at home — creates 2.24, concedes 1.02 · 83 matches

Brda Dobrovo away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.30 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nafta attack 2.24 + Brda Dobrovo defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.27

Brda Dobrovo attack 1.00 + Nafta defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Nafta scores more

65%

level

19%

Brda Dobrovo scores more

16%

Nafta at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Nafta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

R. Paku

43'

M. Rebernik

63'

Jure Bužinel← R. Bužinel

63'

M. Perše← T. Golob

65'

D. Szökrönyös← S. Oštrek

69'

U. CelcerPenalty

74'

G. Kamarás← J. Bizjak

74'

D. Frelih← Dawoud Jalinous

88'

L. Šeruga← M. Novinič

89'

A. Musić

Nafta

Brda

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: A. Stegne

65'▲D. Szökrönyös←▼S. Oštrek

74'▲G. Kamarás←▼J. Bizjak

88'▲L. Šeruga←▼M. Novinič

Nafta substitutes

SzökrönyösKamarásŠerugaPlojCigutDrkPirtovšek

Manager: V. Badžim

63'▲Jure Bužinel←▼R. Bužinel

63'▲M. Perše←▼T. Golob

74'▲D. Frelih←▼Dawoud Jalinous

Brda Dobrovo substitutes

BužinelPeršeFrelihJusufagićPetrovčič