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Brda Dobrovo vs Nafta — 2. SNL 2019

Brda Dobrovo
Brda Dobrovo
CANC
15:00
Nafta
Nafta
5/2/20202. SNL2. SNL · Round 28Športni park Vipolže

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Brda Dobrovo19%
×Draw21%
Nafta59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brda Dobrovo
1.05
Nafta
2.00

Nafta creates 90% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 83 away

creates per match

Brda Dobrovo
0.86
Nafta
1.95

allows per match

Brda Dobrovo
2.05
Nafta
1.25

finishing

Brda Dobrovo+0.00on par
Nafta+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brda Dobrovo ↓

Nafta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Brda Dobrovo or draw
41%
Brda Dobrovo or Nafta
79%
Draw or Nafta
81%

Winning margin

Brda Dobrovo wins by 2+
7%
Nafta wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Brda Dobrovo 1+ goals
65%
Brda Dobrovo 2+ goals
28%
Brda Dobrovo 3+ goals
9%
Nafta 1+ goals
86%
Nafta 2+ goals
59%
Nafta 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Brda Dobrovo (draw refunded)
25%
Nafta (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brda Dobrovo at home — creates 0.86, concedes 2.05 · 22 matches

Nafta away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.25 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brda Dobrovo attack 0.86 + Nafta defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.05

Nafta attack 1.95 + Brda Dobrovo defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Brda Dobrovo scores more
19%
level
21%
Nafta scores more
59%

Nafta at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Nafta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brda Dobrovo vs Nafta — Match Preview

Brda Dobrovo face Nafta on May 2, 2020 in this 2. SNL fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Brda Dobrovo host Nafta at Športni park Vipolže.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.