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Naft vs Naft Maysan — Iraqi League 2025

Naft
Naft
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Naft Maysan
Naft Maysan
H. Khalaf 76' (pen)
F. Abdul 90'
C. M. Kouvouama 63'
1/23/2026Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 14

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Naft41%
×Draw27%
Naft Maysan32%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naft
1.33
Naft Maysan
1.14

Naft creates 17% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 25 away

creates per match

Naft
0.90
Naft Maysan
1.40

allows per match

Naft
0.87
Naft Maysan
1.76

finishing

Naft+0.00on par
Naft Maysan+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naft ↓

Naft Maysan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Naft or draw
68%
Naft or Naft Maysan
73%
Draw or Naft Maysan
59%

Winning margin

Naft wins by 2+
19%
Naft Maysan wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Naft 1+ goals
74%
Naft 2+ goals
38%
Naft 3+ goals
15%
Naft Maysan 1+ goals
68%
Naft Maysan 2+ goals
32%
Naft Maysan 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Naft (draw refunded)
56%
Naft Maysan (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naft at home — creates 0.90, concedes 0.87 · 30 matches

Naft Maysan away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.76 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naft attack 0.90 + Naft Maysan defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.33

Naft Maysan attack 1.40 + Naft defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Naft scores more
41%
level
27%
Naft Maysan scores more
32%

Naft at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Naft will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

63'
C. M. Kouvouama
76'
H. KhalafPenalty
90'
F. Abdul

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Naft 1–2 Naft Maysan

Naft Maysan beat Naft 2-1 in Iraqi League on January 23, 2026.

Goals: C. M. Kouvouama (63'), H. Khalaf (76' pen), F. Abdul (90').