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Naft Maysan vs Naft — Iraqi League 2025

Naft Maysan
Naft Maysan
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Naft
Naft
D. Gueye Dieme 87', 45' (pen), 32' (pen)
5/10/2026Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 34

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Naft Maysan38%
×Draw29%
Naft33%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naft Maysan
1.13
Naft
1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 39 home / 41 away

creates per match

Naft Maysan
1.13
Naft
0.76

allows per match

Naft Maysan
1.33
Naft
1.12

finishing

Naft Maysan+0.00on par
Naft+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naft Maysan ↓

Naft →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Naft Maysan or draw
67%
Naft Maysan or Naft
71%
Draw or Naft
62%

Winning margin

Naft Maysan wins by 2+
15%
Naft wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Naft Maysan 1+ goals
68%
Naft Maysan 2+ goals
31%
Naft Maysan 3+ goals
11%
Naft 1+ goals
65%
Naft 2+ goals
28%
Naft 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Naft Maysan (draw refunded)
53%
Naft (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naft Maysan at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.33 · 39 matches

Naft away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.12 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naft Maysan attack 1.13 + Naft defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.13

Naft attack 0.76 + Naft Maysan defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Naft Maysan scores more
38%
level
29%
Naft scores more
33%

Naft Maysan at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Naft Maysan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
K. Salim
32'
D. Gueye DiemePenalty
45'
D. Gueye DiemePenalty
87'
D. Gueye Dieme

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Naft Maysan vs Naft

Naft Maysan beat Naft 3-0 in Iraqi League on May 10, 2026.

Goals: D. Gueye Dieme (32' pen, 45' pen, 87').