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Naft vs Naft Maysan — Iraqi League 2020

Naft
Naft
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Naft Maysan
Naft Maysan
3/13/2023Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 20Al-Shaab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Naft40%
×Draw30%
Naft Maysan31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naft
1.15
Naft Maysan
0.98

Naft creates 17% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 112 away

creates per match

Naft
0.98
Naft Maysan
1.06

allows per match

Naft
0.90
Naft Maysan
1.31

finishing

Naft+0.00on par
Naft Maysan+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naft ↓

Naft Maysan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Naft or draw
69%
Naft or Naft Maysan
70%
Draw or Naft Maysan
60%

Winning margin

Naft wins by 2+
17%
Naft Maysan wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Naft 1+ goals
68%
Naft 2+ goals
32%
Naft 3+ goals
11%
Naft Maysan 1+ goals
62%
Naft Maysan 2+ goals
26%
Naft Maysan 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Naft (draw refunded)
56%
Naft Maysan (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naft at home — creates 0.98, concedes 0.90 · 110 matches

Naft Maysan away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.31 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naft attack 0.98 + Naft Maysan defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.15

Naft Maysan attack 1.06 + Naft defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Naft scores more
40%
level
30%
Naft Maysan scores more
31%

Naft at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Naft will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Naft vs Naft Maysan

Naft Maysan beat Naft 2-1 in Iraqi League on March 13, 2023.

The match was played at Al-Shaab Stadium in Bagdad.