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Naft vs Erbil — Iraqi League 2025

Naft
Naft
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Erbil
Erbil
G. Luqman 90'
M. Chobanov 45'
4/14/2026Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 28

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Naft30%
×Draw30%
Erbil40%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naft
0.93
Erbil
1.13

Erbil creates 22% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 33 away

creates per match

Naft
0.83
Erbil
1.45

allows per match

Naft
0.81
Erbil
1.03

finishing

Naft+0.00on par
Erbil+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naft ↓

Erbil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Naft or draw
60%
Naft or Erbil
70%
Draw or Erbil
70%

Winning margin

Naft wins by 2+
11%
Erbil wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Naft 1+ goals
61%
Naft 2+ goals
24%
Naft 3+ goals
7%
Erbil 1+ goals
68%
Erbil 2+ goals
31%
Erbil 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Naft (draw refunded)
43%
Erbil (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naft at home — creates 0.83, concedes 0.81 · 36 matches

Erbil away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.03 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naft attack 0.83 + Erbil defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.93

Erbil attack 1.45 + Naft defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Naft scores more
30%
level
30%
Erbil scores more
40%

Erbil at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Erbil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'
M. Chobanov
80'
A. Hzair
90'
G. Luqman

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Naft vs Erbil

Erbil beat Naft 2-0 in Iraqi League on April 14, 2026.

Goals: M. Chobanov (45'), G. Luqman (90').