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Erbil vs Naft — Iraqi League 2025

Erbil
Erbil
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Naft
Naft
Hélio Baptista 74'
C. Abogo 45'
Husam Khalaf 46', 39'
Ahmad Khaled 45+6'
4/16/2025Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 28Franso Hariri Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Erbil43%
×Draw28%
Naft29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Erbil
1.31
Naft
1.02

Erbil creates 28% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 38 away

creates per match

Erbil
1.44
Naft
0.82

allows per match

Erbil
1.22
Naft
1.18

finishing

Erbil+0.00on par
Naft+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erbil ↓

Naft →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Erbil or draw
71%
Erbil or Naft
72%
Draw or Naft
57%

Winning margin

Erbil wins by 2+
20%
Naft wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Erbil 1+ goals
73%
Erbil 2+ goals
38%
Erbil 3+ goals
14%
Naft 1+ goals
64%
Naft 2+ goals
27%
Naft 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Erbil (draw refunded)
60%
Naft (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erbil at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.22 · 32 matches

Naft away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.18 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erbil attack 1.44 + Naft defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.31

Naft attack 0.82 + Erbil defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Erbil scores more
43%
level
28%
Naft scores more
29%

Erbil at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Erbil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'
Husam Khalaf
45'
C. Abogo
45+6'
Ahmad Khaled
46'
Husam Khalaf
74'
Hélio Baptista

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Erbil 2 – 3 Naft

Naft beat Erbil 3-2 in Iraqi League on April 16, 2025.

Goals: Husam Khalaf (39', 46'), C. Abogo (45'), Ahmad Khaled (45+6'), Hélio Baptista (74').

The match was played at Franso Hariri Stadium in Erbil.