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Naft vs Erbil — Iraqi League 2020

Naft
Naft
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Erbil
Erbil
1/2/2021Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 12Al-Karkh Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Naft39%
×Draw29%
Erbil32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naft
1.14
Erbil
1.01

Naft creates 13% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 110 away

creates per match

Naft
0.98
Erbil
1.11

allows per match

Naft
0.90
Erbil
1.29

finishing

Naft+0.00on par
Erbil+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naft ↓

Erbil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Naft or draw
68%
Naft or Erbil
71%
Draw or Erbil
61%

Winning margin

Naft wins by 2+
16%
Erbil wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Naft 1+ goals
68%
Naft 2+ goals
32%
Naft 3+ goals
11%
Erbil 1+ goals
64%
Erbil 2+ goals
27%
Erbil 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Naft (draw refunded)
55%
Erbil (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naft at home — creates 0.98, concedes 0.90 · 110 matches

Erbil away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.29 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naft attack 0.98 + Erbil defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.14

Erbil attack 1.11 + Naft defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Naft scores more
39%
level
29%
Erbil scores more
32%

Naft at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Naft will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Naft vs Erbil

Naft and Erbil drew 1-1 in Iraqi League on January 2, 2021.

The match was played at Al-Karkh Stadium in Bagdad.