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Naft vs Al Zawra'a — Iraqi League 2025

Naft
Naft
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al Zawra'a
Al Zawra'a
2/1/2026Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Naft29%
×Draw31%
Al Zawra'a40%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naft
0.89
Al Zawra'a
1.10

Al Zawra'a creates 24% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 32 away

creates per match

Naft
1.00
Al Zawra'a
1.25

allows per match

Naft
0.95
Al Zawra'a
0.78

finishing

Naft+0.00on par
Al Zawra'a+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naft ↓

Al Zawra'a →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–115%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Naft or draw
60%
Naft or Al Zawra'a
69%
Draw or Al Zawra'a
71%

Winning margin

Naft wins by 2+
10%
Al Zawra'a wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Naft 1+ goals
59%
Naft 2+ goals
22%
Naft 3+ goals
6%
Al Zawra'a 1+ goals
67%
Al Zawra'a 2+ goals
30%
Al Zawra'a 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Naft (draw refunded)
42%
Al Zawra'a (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naft at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.95 · 19 matches

Al Zawra'a away — creates 1.25, concedes 0.78 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naft attack 1.00 + Al Zawra'a defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.89

Al Zawra'a attack 1.25 + Naft defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Naft scores more
29%
level
31%
Al Zawra'a scores more
40%

Al Zawra'a at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Al Zawra'a will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Naft 0 – 0 Al Zawra'a

Naft and Al Zawra'a drew 0-0 in Iraqi League on February 1, 2026.