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Al Zawra'a vs Naft — Iraqi League 2025

Al Zawra'a
Al Zawra'a
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Naft
Naft
Ali Yousif 88', 38'
Kadhim Raad 19'
Ahmad Khaled 62'
1/15/2025Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 14Al-Zawraa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Al Zawra'a46%
×Draw29%
Naft25%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Zawra'a
1.26
Naft
0.86

Al Zawra'a creates 47% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 36 away

creates per match

Al Zawra'a
1.33
Naft
0.86

allows per match

Al Zawra'a
0.87
Naft
1.19

finishing

Al Zawra'a+0.00on par
Naft+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Zawra'a ↓

Naft →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Al Zawra'a or draw
75%
Al Zawra'a or Naft
71%
Draw or Naft
54%

Winning margin

Al Zawra'a wins by 2+
21%
Naft wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Al Zawra'a 1+ goals
72%
Al Zawra'a 2+ goals
36%
Al Zawra'a 3+ goals
13%
Naft 1+ goals
58%
Naft 2+ goals
21%
Naft 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Al Zawra'a (draw refunded)
64%
Naft (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Zawra'a at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.87 · 39 matches

Naft away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.19 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Zawra'a attack 1.33 + Naft defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.26

Naft attack 0.86 + Al Zawra'a defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Al Zawra'a scores more
46%
level
29%
Naft scores more
25%

Al Zawra'a at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Al Zawra'a will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
Kadhim Raad
38'
Ali Yousif
62'
Ahmad Khaled
88'
Ali Yousif

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Al Zawra'a 3 – 1 Naft

Al Zawra'a beat Naft 3-1 in Iraqi League on January 15, 2025.

Goals: Kadhim Raad (19'), Ali Yousif (38', 88'), Ahmad Khaled (62').

The match was played at Al-Zawraa Stadium in Bagdad.