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Naft vs Al Minaa Basra — Iraqi League 2025

Naft
Naft
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Al Minaa Basra
Al Minaa Basra
W. Kareem 75'
M. Abdulrahim 70'
5/14/2026Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 35

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Naft40%
×Draw32%
Al Minaa Basra28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naft
1.06
Al Minaa Basra
0.83

Naft creates 28% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 26 away

creates per match

Naft
0.90
Al Minaa Basra
0.77

allows per match

Naft
0.90
Al Minaa Basra
1.23

finishing

Naft+0.00on par
Al Minaa Basra+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naft ↓

Al Minaa Basra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Naft or draw
72%
Naft or Al Minaa Basra
68%
Draw or Al Minaa Basra
60%

Winning margin

Naft wins by 2+
16%
Al Minaa Basra wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Naft 1+ goals
65%
Naft 2+ goals
29%
Naft 3+ goals
9%
Al Minaa Basra 1+ goals
56%
Al Minaa Basra 2+ goals
20%
Al Minaa Basra 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Naft (draw refunded)
59%
Al Minaa Basra (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naft at home — creates 0.90, concedes 0.90 · 29 matches

Al Minaa Basra away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.23 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naft attack 0.90 + Al Minaa Basra defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.06

Al Minaa Basra attack 0.77 + Naft defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Naft scores more
40%
level
32%
Al Minaa Basra scores more
28%

Naft at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Naft will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

70'
M. Abdulrahim
75'
W. Kareem

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Naft vs Al Minaa Basra

Naft and Al Minaa Basra drew 1-1 in Iraqi League on May 14, 2026.

Goals: M. Abdulrahim (70'), W. Kareem (75').