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Al Minaa Basra vs Naft — Iraqi League 2025

Al Minaa Basra
Al Minaa Basra
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Naft
Naft
5/9/2024Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 27Al Minaa Olympic Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Al Minaa Basra41%
×Draw30%
Naft29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Minaa Basra
1.13
Naft
0.91

Al Minaa Basra creates 24% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 40 away

creates per match

Al Minaa Basra
1.11
Naft
0.78

allows per match

Al Minaa Basra
1.03
Naft
1.15

finishing

Al Minaa Basra+0.00on par
Naft+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Minaa Basra ↓

Naft →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Al Minaa Basra or draw
71%
Al Minaa Basra or Naft
70%
Draw or Naft
59%

Winning margin

Al Minaa Basra wins by 2+
17%
Naft wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Al Minaa Basra 1+ goals
68%
Al Minaa Basra 2+ goals
31%
Al Minaa Basra 3+ goals
11%
Naft 1+ goals
60%
Naft 2+ goals
23%
Naft 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Al Minaa Basra (draw refunded)
58%
Naft (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Minaa Basra at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.03 · 35 matches

Naft away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.15 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Minaa Basra attack 1.11 + Naft defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.13

Naft attack 0.78 + Al Minaa Basra defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Al Minaa Basra scores more
41%
level
30%
Naft scores more
29%

Al Minaa Basra at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Al Minaa Basra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Minaa Basra vs Naft

Al Minaa Basra and Naft drew 0-0 in Iraqi League on May 9, 2024.

The match was played at Al Minaa Olympic Stadium in Basra.