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Naft vs Al Minaa Basra — Iraqi League 2020

Naft
Naft
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Al Minaa Basra
Al Minaa Basra
2/24/2022Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 23Al Naft Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Naft43%
×Draw30%
Al Minaa Basra27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naft
1.19
Al Minaa Basra
0.88

Naft creates 35% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 93 away

creates per match

Naft
0.98
Al Minaa Basra
0.86

allows per match

Naft
0.90
Al Minaa Basra
1.40

finishing

Naft+0.00on par
Al Minaa Basra+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naft ↓

Al Minaa Basra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Naft or draw
73%
Naft or Al Minaa Basra
70%
Draw or Al Minaa Basra
57%

Winning margin

Naft wins by 2+
19%
Al Minaa Basra wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Naft 1+ goals
70%
Naft 2+ goals
33%
Naft 3+ goals
12%
Al Minaa Basra 1+ goals
59%
Al Minaa Basra 2+ goals
22%
Al Minaa Basra 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Naft (draw refunded)
61%
Al Minaa Basra (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naft at home — creates 0.98, concedes 0.90 · 110 matches

Al Minaa Basra away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.40 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naft attack 0.98 + Al Minaa Basra defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.19

Al Minaa Basra attack 0.86 + Naft defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Naft scores more
43%
level
30%
Al Minaa Basra scores more
27%

Naft at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Naft will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Naft 4–1 Al Minaa Basra

Naft beat Al Minaa Basra 4-1 in Iraqi League on February 24, 2022.

The match was played at Al Naft Stadium in Basra.