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Naft Maysan vs Naft — Iraqi League 2020

Naft Maysan
Naft Maysan
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Naft
Naft
3/1/2024Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 17Maysan International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Naft Maysan34%
×Draw31%
Naft35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naft Maysan
1.00
Naft
1.01

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 108 home / 113 away

creates per match

Naft Maysan
1.04
Naft
0.84

allows per match

Naft Maysan
1.19
Naft
0.96

finishing

Naft Maysan+0.00on par
Naft+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naft Maysan ↓

Naft →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Naft Maysan or draw
65%
Naft Maysan or Naft
69%
Draw or Naft
66%

Winning margin

Naft Maysan wins by 2+
13%
Naft wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Naft Maysan 1+ goals
63%
Naft Maysan 2+ goals
26%
Naft Maysan 3+ goals
8%
Naft 1+ goals
64%
Naft 2+ goals
27%
Naft 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Naft Maysan (draw refunded)
50%
Naft (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naft Maysan at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.19 · 108 matches

Naft away — creates 0.84, concedes 0.96 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naft Maysan attack 1.04 + Naft defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.00

Naft attack 0.84 + Naft Maysan defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Naft Maysan scores more
34%
level
31%
Naft scores more
35%

Naft at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Naft will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'
W. Kareem

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Naft Maysan vs Naft

Naft Maysan and Naft drew 0-0 in Iraqi League on March 1, 2024.

The match was played at Maysan International Stadium in Al Amarah.