Naft Maysan 1–1 Mosul: Result & Stats

Naft Maysan

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Mosul

D. Gueye Dieme 36'

A. Al Dali 45' (pen)

4/13/2026

Iraqi League · Round 28

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Naft Maysan32%

×Draw27%

Mosul40%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Naft MaysanExpected goals in this matchMosul

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

1.29

Naft Maysan

1.12

Mosul

1.29

Mosul creates 15% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 19 away

1.13

creates per match

1.26

1.33

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Naft Maysan

1.13

Mosul

1.26

allows per match

Naft Maysan

1.33

Mosul

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Naft Maysan+0.00on par

Mosul+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naft Maysan ↓

Mosul →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Naft Maysan or draw

60%

Naft Maysan or Mosul

73%

Draw or Mosul

68%

Winning margin

Naft Maysan wins by 2+

13%

Mosul wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Naft Maysan 1+ goals

67%

Naft Maysan 2+ goals

31%

Naft Maysan 3+ goals

10%

Mosul 1+ goals

72%

Mosul 2+ goals

37%

Mosul 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Naft Maysan (draw refunded)

44%

Mosul (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naft Maysan at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.33 · 39 matches

Mosul away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naft Maysan attack 1.13 + Mosul defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.12

Mosul attack 1.26 + Naft Maysan defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Naft Maysan scores more

32%

level

27%

Mosul scores more

40%

Mosul at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Mosul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'

D. Gueye Dieme

45'

A. Al DaliPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff