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Mosul vs Naft Maysan — Iraqi League 2025

Mosul
Mosul
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Naft Maysan
Naft Maysan
R. Foning 42'
D. Gueye Dieme 45'
12/22/2025Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Mosul37%
×Draw26%
Naft Maysan37%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mosul
1.33
Naft Maysan
1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 44 away

creates per match

Mosul
1.12
Naft Maysan
1.18

allows per match

Mosul
1.47
Naft Maysan
1.55

finishing

Mosul+0.00on par
Naft Maysan+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mosul ↓

Naft Maysan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Mosul or draw
63%
Mosul or Naft Maysan
74%
Draw or Naft Maysan
63%

Winning margin

Mosul wins by 2+
17%
Naft Maysan wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Mosul 1+ goals
74%
Mosul 2+ goals
38%
Mosul 3+ goals
15%
Naft Maysan 1+ goals
73%
Naft Maysan 2+ goals
38%
Naft Maysan 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Mosul (draw refunded)
50%
Naft Maysan (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mosul at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

Naft Maysan away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.55 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mosul attack 1.12 + Naft Maysan defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.33

Naft Maysan attack 1.18 + Mosul defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Mosul scores more
37%
level
26%
Naft Maysan scores more
37%

Mosul at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Mosul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'
R. Foning
45'
D. Gueye Dieme

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Mosul 1–1 Naft Maysan

Mosul and Naft Maysan drew 1-1 in Iraqi League on December 22, 2025.

Goals: R. Foning (42'), D. Gueye Dieme (45').