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Naft Maysan vs Duhok — Iraqi League 2025

Naft Maysan
Naft Maysan
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Duhok
Duhok
A. Saad 79'
H. Talib 54'
P. Gwargis 90' (pen)
M. Mohammed 38'
11/21/2025Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Naft Maysan34%
×Draw27%
Duhok39%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naft Maysan
1.17
Duhok
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 42 away

creates per match

Naft Maysan
1.07
Duhok
1.26

allows per match

Naft Maysan
1.29
Duhok
1.26

finishing

Naft Maysan+0.00on par
Duhok+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naft Maysan ↓

Duhok →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Naft Maysan or draw
61%
Naft Maysan or Duhok
73%
Draw or Duhok
66%

Winning margin

Naft Maysan wins by 2+
14%
Duhok wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Naft Maysan 1+ goals
69%
Naft Maysan 2+ goals
33%
Naft Maysan 3+ goals
11%
Duhok 1+ goals
72%
Duhok 2+ goals
36%
Duhok 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Naft Maysan (draw refunded)
47%
Duhok (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naft Maysan at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.29 · 42 matches

Duhok away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.26 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naft Maysan attack 1.07 + Duhok defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.17

Duhok attack 1.26 + Naft Maysan defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Naft Maysan scores more
34%
level
27%
Duhok scores more
39%

Duhok at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Duhok will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'
M. Mohammed
54'
H. Talib
79'
A. Saad
90'
P. GwargisPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Naft Maysan 2–2 Duhok

Naft Maysan and Duhok drew 2-2 in Iraqi League on November 21, 2025.

Goals: M. Mohammed (38'), H. Talib (54'), A. Saad (79'), P. Gwargis (90' pen).