Duhok 0–0 Naft Maysan: Result & Stats

Duhok

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Naft Maysan

5/28/2025

Iraqi League · Round 23Dohuk Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Duhok41%

×Draw29%

Naft Maysan30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DuhokExpected goals in this matchNaft Maysan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.99

Duhok

1.21

Naft Maysan

0.99

Duhok creates 22% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 109 away

1.12

creates per match

1.07

0.91

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Duhok

1.12

Naft Maysan

1.07

allows per match

Duhok

0.91

Naft Maysan

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Duhok+0.00on par

Naft Maysan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Duhok ↓

Naft Maysan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Duhok or draw

70%

Duhok or Naft Maysan

71%

Draw or Naft Maysan

59%

Winning margin

Duhok wins by 2+

18%

Naft Maysan wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Duhok 1+ goals

70%

Duhok 2+ goals

34%

Duhok 3+ goals

12%

Naft Maysan 1+ goals

63%

Naft Maysan 2+ goals

26%

Naft Maysan 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Duhok (draw refunded)

58%

Naft Maysan (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Duhok at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.91 · 77 matches

Naft Maysan away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.29 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Duhok attack 1.12 + Naft Maysan defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.21

Naft Maysan attack 1.07 + Duhok defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Duhok scores more

41%

level

29%

Naft Maysan scores more

30%

Duhok at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Duhok will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff