Naft Maysan 1–1 Diyala: Result & Stats

Naft Maysan

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Diyala

D. Gueye Dieme 3'

T. Salhi 90'

1/5/2026

Iraqi League · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Naft Maysan33%

×Draw28%

Diyala39%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Naft MaysanExpected goals in this matchDiyala

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.21

Naft Maysan

1.08

Diyala

1.21

Diyala creates 12% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 28 away

0.96

creates per match

0.89

1.52

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Naft Maysan

0.96

Diyala

0.89

allows per match

Naft Maysan

1.52

Diyala

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Naft Maysan+0.00on par

Diyala+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naft Maysan ↓

Diyala →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Naft Maysan or draw

61%

Naft Maysan or Diyala

72%

Draw or Diyala

67%

Winning margin

Naft Maysan wins by 2+

13%

Diyala wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Naft Maysan 1+ goals

66%

Naft Maysan 2+ goals

29%

Naft Maysan 3+ goals

10%

Diyala 1+ goals

70%

Diyala 2+ goals

34%

Diyala 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Naft Maysan (draw refunded)

46%

Diyala (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naft Maysan at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.52 · 23 matches

Diyala away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.21 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naft Maysan attack 0.96 + Diyala defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.08

Diyala attack 0.89 + Naft Maysan defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Naft Maysan scores more

33%

level

28%

Diyala scores more

39%

Diyala at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Diyala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

D. Gueye Dieme

90'

T. Salhi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff