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Diyala vs Naft Maysan — Iraqi League 2025

Diyala
Diyala
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Naft Maysan
Naft Maysan
M. Hassan 54'
4/9/2026Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 27

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Diyala38%
×Draw27%
Naft Maysan35%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Diyala
1.30
Naft Maysan
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 42 away

creates per match

Diyala
1.00
Naft Maysan
1.21

allows per match

Diyala
1.28
Naft Maysan
1.60

finishing

Diyala+0.00on par
Naft Maysan+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Diyala ↓

Naft Maysan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Diyala or draw
65%
Diyala or Naft Maysan
73%
Draw or Naft Maysan
62%

Winning margin

Diyala wins by 2+
17%
Naft Maysan wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Diyala 1+ goals
73%
Diyala 2+ goals
37%
Diyala 3+ goals
14%
Naft Maysan 1+ goals
71%
Naft Maysan 2+ goals
36%
Naft Maysan 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Diyala (draw refunded)
52%
Naft Maysan (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Diyala at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.28 · 32 matches

Naft Maysan away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.60 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Diyala attack 1.00 + Naft Maysan defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.30

Naft Maysan attack 1.21 + Diyala defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Diyala scores more
38%
level
27%
Naft Maysan scores more
35%

Diyala at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Diyala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
S. Outtara
54'
M. Hassan
88'
C. Opare
88'
C. Opare

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Diyala 1–0 Naft Maysan

Diyala beat Naft Maysan 1-0 in Iraqi League on April 9, 2026.

Goals: M. Hassan (54').