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Naft Maysan vs Baghdad — Iraqi League 2025

Naft Maysan
Naft Maysan
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Baghdad
Baghdad
N. Sioud 82'
H. Mutar 41'
K. El Keraa 9'
3/6/2026Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 21

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Naft Maysan44%
×Draw26%
Baghdad30%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naft Maysan
1.44
Baghdad
1.13

Naft Maysan creates 27% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 40 away

creates per match

Naft Maysan
1.10
Baghdad
0.93

allows per match

Naft Maysan
1.32
Baghdad
1.77

finishing

Naft Maysan+0.00on par
Baghdad+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naft Maysan ↓

Baghdad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Naft Maysan or draw
70%
Naft Maysan or Baghdad
74%
Draw or Baghdad
56%

Winning margin

Naft Maysan wins by 2+
21%
Baghdad wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Naft Maysan 1+ goals
76%
Naft Maysan 2+ goals
42%
Naft Maysan 3+ goals
18%
Baghdad 1+ goals
68%
Baghdad 2+ goals
31%
Baghdad 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Naft Maysan (draw refunded)
60%
Baghdad (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naft Maysan at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.32 · 40 matches

Baghdad away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.77 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naft Maysan attack 1.10 + Baghdad defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.44

Baghdad attack 0.93 + Naft Maysan defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Naft Maysan scores more
44%
level
26%
Baghdad scores more
30%

Naft Maysan at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Naft Maysan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
K. El Keraa
41'
H. Mutar
82'
N. Sioud

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Naft Maysan 2–1 Baghdad

Naft Maysan beat Baghdad 2-1 in Iraqi League on March 6, 2026.

Goals: K. El Keraa (9'), H. Mutar (41'), N. Sioud (82').