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Baghdad vs Naft Maysan — Iraqi League 2025

Baghdad
Baghdad
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Naft Maysan
Naft Maysan
Z. Jabbar 49'
K. El Keraa 43', 13'
S. Outtara 4' (OG)
A. Saad 18' (pen)
10/5/2025Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Baghdad37%
×Draw27%
Naft Maysan37%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baghdad
1.29
Naft Maysan
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 42 away

creates per match

Baghdad
0.97
Naft Maysan
1.21

allows per match

Baghdad
1.38
Naft Maysan
1.60

finishing

Baghdad+0.00on par
Naft Maysan+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baghdad ↓

Naft Maysan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Baghdad or draw
63%
Baghdad or Naft Maysan
73%
Draw or Naft Maysan
63%

Winning margin

Baghdad wins by 2+
16%
Naft Maysan wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Baghdad 1+ goals
72%
Baghdad 2+ goals
37%
Baghdad 3+ goals
14%
Naft Maysan 1+ goals
72%
Naft Maysan 2+ goals
37%
Naft Maysan 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Baghdad (draw refunded)
50%
Naft Maysan (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baghdad at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.38 · 37 matches

Naft Maysan away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.60 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baghdad attack 0.97 + Naft Maysan defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.29

Naft Maysan attack 1.21 + Baghdad defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Baghdad scores more
37%
level
27%
Naft Maysan scores more
37%

Baghdad at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Baghdad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
S. OuttaraOwn goal
13'
K. El Keraa
18'
A. SaadPenalty
43'
K. El Keraa
49'
Z. Jabbar
88'
A. Kute
88'
A. Kute

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Baghdad 4–1 Naft Maysan

Baghdad beat Naft Maysan 4-1 in Iraqi League on October 5, 2025.

Goals: S. Outtara (4' o.g.), K. El Keraa (13', 43'), A. Saad (18' pen), Z. Jabbar (49').