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Naft Maysan vs Baghdad — Iraqi League 2020

Naft Maysan
Naft Maysan
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Baghdad
Baghdad
11/27/2021Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 11Al Faihaa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Naft Maysan41%
×Draw28%
Baghdad31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naft Maysan
1.25
Baghdad
1.05

Naft Maysan creates 19% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 78 away

creates per match

Naft Maysan
1.04
Baghdad
0.91

allows per match

Naft Maysan
1.19
Baghdad
1.46

finishing

Naft Maysan+0.00on par
Baghdad+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naft Maysan ↓

Baghdad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Naft Maysan or draw
69%
Naft Maysan or Baghdad
72%
Draw or Baghdad
59%

Winning margin

Naft Maysan wins by 2+
18%
Baghdad wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Naft Maysan 1+ goals
71%
Naft Maysan 2+ goals
36%
Naft Maysan 3+ goals
13%
Baghdad 1+ goals
65%
Baghdad 2+ goals
28%
Baghdad 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Naft Maysan (draw refunded)
57%
Baghdad (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naft Maysan at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.19 · 108 matches

Baghdad away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.46 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naft Maysan attack 1.04 + Baghdad defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.25

Baghdad attack 0.91 + Naft Maysan defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Naft Maysan scores more
41%
level
28%
Baghdad scores more
31%

Naft Maysan at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Naft Maysan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Naft Maysan vs Baghdad

Baghdad beat Naft Maysan 1-0 in Iraqi League on November 27, 2021.

The match was played at Al Faihaa Stadium in Basra.