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Naft Masjed Soleyman vs Khooshe Talaee Saveh — Azadegan League 2018

Naft Masjed Soleyman
Naft Masjed Soleyman
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
6/10/2024Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 34Behnam Mohammadi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Naft Masjed Soleyman48%
×Draw30%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naft Masjed Soleyman
1.22
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
0.74

Naft Masjed Soleyman creates 65% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 84 away

creates per match

Naft Masjed Soleyman
1.29
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
0.77

allows per match

Naft Masjed Soleyman
0.71
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
1.15

finishing

Naft Masjed Soleyman+0.00on par
Khooshe Talaee Saveh+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naft Masjed Soleyman ↓

Khooshe Talaee Saveh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Naft Masjed Soleyman or draw
78%
Naft Masjed Soleyman or Khooshe Talaee Saveh
70%
Draw or Khooshe Talaee Saveh
52%

Winning margin

Naft Masjed Soleyman wins by 2+
21%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Naft Masjed Soleyman 1+ goals
70%
Naft Masjed Soleyman 2+ goals
34%
Naft Masjed Soleyman 3+ goals
12%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh 1+ goals
52%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh 2+ goals
17%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Naft Masjed Soleyman (draw refunded)
68%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naft Masjed Soleyman at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.71 · 34 matches

Khooshe Talaee Saveh away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.15 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naft Masjed Soleyman attack 1.29 + Khooshe Talaee Saveh defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.22

Khooshe Talaee Saveh attack 0.77 + Naft Masjed Soleyman defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Naft Masjed Soleyman scores more
48%
level
30%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh scores more
22%

Naft Masjed Soleyman at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Naft Masjed Soleyman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Naft Masjed Soleyman vs Khooshe Talaee Saveh

Naft Masjed Soleyman beat Khooshe Talaee Saveh 2-0 in Azadegan League on June 10, 2024.

The match was played at Behnam Mohammadi Stadium in Masjed Soleyman.