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Khooshe Talaee Saveh vs Naft Masjed Soleyman — Azadegan League 2018

Khooshe Talaee Saveh
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Naft Masjed Soleyman
Naft Masjed Soleyman
12/20/2023Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 17Vahdat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Khooshe Talaee Saveh43%
×Draw29%
Naft Masjed Soleyman27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khooshe Talaee Saveh
1.21
Naft Masjed Soleyman
0.89

Khooshe Talaee Saveh creates 36% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 34 away

creates per match

Khooshe Talaee Saveh
1.20
Naft Masjed Soleyman
0.94

allows per match

Khooshe Talaee Saveh
0.83
Naft Masjed Soleyman
1.21

finishing

Khooshe Talaee Saveh+0.00on par
Naft Masjed Soleyman+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khooshe Talaee Saveh ↓

Naft Masjed Soleyman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Khooshe Talaee Saveh or draw
73%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh or Naft Masjed Soleyman
71%
Draw or Naft Masjed Soleyman
57%

Winning margin

Khooshe Talaee Saveh wins by 2+
19%
Naft Masjed Soleyman wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Khooshe Talaee Saveh 1+ goals
70%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh 2+ goals
34%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh 3+ goals
12%
Naft Masjed Soleyman 1+ goals
59%
Naft Masjed Soleyman 2+ goals
22%
Naft Masjed Soleyman 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Khooshe Talaee Saveh (draw refunded)
62%
Naft Masjed Soleyman (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khooshe Talaee Saveh at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.83 · 83 matches

Naft Masjed Soleyman away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.21 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khooshe Talaee Saveh attack 1.20 + Naft Masjed Soleyman defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.21

Naft Masjed Soleyman attack 0.94 + Khooshe Talaee Saveh defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Khooshe Talaee Saveh scores more
43%
level
29%
Naft Masjed Soleyman scores more
27%

Khooshe Talaee Saveh at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Khooshe Talaee Saveh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Khooshe Talaee Saveh vs Naft Masjed Soleyman

Naft Masjed Soleyman beat Khooshe Talaee Saveh 3-0 in Azadegan League on December 20, 2023.

The match was played at Vahdat Stadium in Astara.