Naft Masjed Soleyman 1–0 Fajr Sepasi

Naft Masjed Soleyman

FT

1 – 0

Fajr Sepasi

9/2/2023

Azadegan League · Round 1Behnam Mohammadi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Naft Masjed Soleyman40%

×Draw31%

Fajr Sepasi29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Naft Masjed SoleymanExpected goals in this matchFajr Sepasi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

0.87

Naft Masjed Soleyman

1.07

Fajr Sepasi

0.87

Naft Masjed Soleyman creates 23% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 98 away

1.29

creates per match

1.03

0.71

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Naft Masjed Soleyman

1.29

Fajr Sepasi

1.03

allows per match

Naft Masjed Soleyman

0.71

Fajr Sepasi

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Naft Masjed Soleyman+0.00on par

Fajr Sepasi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naft Masjed Soleyman ↓

Fajr Sepasi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–113%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Naft Masjed Soleyman or draw

71%

Naft Masjed Soleyman or Fajr Sepasi

69%

Draw or Fajr Sepasi

60%

Winning margin

Naft Masjed Soleyman wins by 2+

16%

Fajr Sepasi wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Naft Masjed Soleyman 1+ goals

66%

Naft Masjed Soleyman 2+ goals

29%

Naft Masjed Soleyman 3+ goals

9%

Fajr Sepasi 1+ goals

58%

Fajr Sepasi 2+ goals

22%

Fajr Sepasi 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Naft Masjed Soleyman (draw refunded)

58%

Fajr Sepasi (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naft Masjed Soleyman at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.71 · 34 matches

Fajr Sepasi away — creates 1.03, concedes 0.86 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naft Masjed Soleyman attack 1.29 + Fajr Sepasi defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.07

Fajr Sepasi attack 1.03 + Naft Masjed Soleyman defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Naft Masjed Soleyman scores more

40%

level

31%

Fajr Sepasi scores more

29%

Naft Masjed Soleyman at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Naft Masjed Soleyman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff