Fajr Sepasi 1–0 Naft Masjed Soleyman

Fajr Sepasi

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Naft Masjed Soleyman

2/2/2024

Azadegan League · Round 18Hafezieh Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Fajr Sepasi50%

×Draw29%

Naft Masjed Soleyman21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fajr SepasiExpected goals in this matchNaft Masjed Soleyman

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

0.72

Fajr Sepasi

1.30

Naft Masjed Soleyman

0.72

Fajr Sepasi creates 81% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 34 away

1.40

creates per match

0.94

0.50

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Fajr Sepasi

1.40

Naft Masjed Soleyman

0.94

allows per match

Fajr Sepasi

0.50

Naft Masjed Soleyman

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fajr Sepasi+0.00on par

Naft Masjed Soleyman+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fajr Sepasi ↓

Naft Masjed Soleyman →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Fajr Sepasi or draw

79%

Fajr Sepasi or Naft Masjed Soleyman

71%

Draw or Naft Masjed Soleyman

50%

Winning margin

Fajr Sepasi wins by 2+

24%

Naft Masjed Soleyman wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Fajr Sepasi 1+ goals

73%

Fajr Sepasi 2+ goals

37%

Fajr Sepasi 3+ goals

14%

Naft Masjed Soleyman 1+ goals

51%

Naft Masjed Soleyman 2+ goals

16%

Naft Masjed Soleyman 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Fajr Sepasi (draw refunded)

71%

Naft Masjed Soleyman (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fajr Sepasi at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.50 · 100 matches

Naft Masjed Soleyman away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.21 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fajr Sepasi attack 1.40 + Naft Masjed Soleyman defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.30

Naft Masjed Soleyman attack 0.94 + Fajr Sepasi defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Fajr Sepasi scores more

50%

level

29%

Naft Masjed Soleyman scores more

21%

Fajr Sepasi at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Fajr Sepasi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff