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Naft Masjed Soleyman vs Fajr Sepasi — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Naft Masjed Soleyman
Naft Masjed Soleyman
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Fajr Sepasi
Fajr Sepasi
12/24/2021Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 11Behnam Mohammadi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Naft Masjed Soleyman38%
×Draw32%
Fajr Sepasi30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naft Masjed Soleyman
1.02
Fajr Sepasi
0.88

Naft Masjed Soleyman creates 16% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 27 away

creates per match

Naft Masjed Soleyman
0.85
Fajr Sepasi
0.63

allows per match

Naft Masjed Soleyman
1.13
Fajr Sepasi
1.19

finishing

Naft Masjed Soleyman+0.00on par
Fajr Sepasi+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naft Masjed Soleyman ↓

Fajr Sepasi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Naft Masjed Soleyman or draw
70%
Naft Masjed Soleyman or Fajr Sepasi
68%
Draw or Fajr Sepasi
62%

Winning margin

Naft Masjed Soleyman wins by 2+
15%
Fajr Sepasi wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Naft Masjed Soleyman 1+ goals
64%
Naft Masjed Soleyman 2+ goals
27%
Naft Masjed Soleyman 3+ goals
8%
Fajr Sepasi 1+ goals
59%
Fajr Sepasi 2+ goals
22%
Fajr Sepasi 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Naft Masjed Soleyman (draw refunded)
55%
Fajr Sepasi (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naft Masjed Soleyman at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.13 · 75 matches

Fajr Sepasi away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.19 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naft Masjed Soleyman attack 0.85 + Fajr Sepasi defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.02

Fajr Sepasi attack 0.63 + Naft Masjed Soleyman defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Naft Masjed Soleyman scores more
38%
level
32%
Fajr Sepasi scores more
30%

Naft Masjed Soleyman at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Naft Masjed Soleyman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persian Gulf Pro League: Naft Masjed Soleyman 2–0 Fajr Sepasi

Naft Masjed Soleyman beat Fajr Sepasi 2-0 in Persian Gulf Pro League on December 24, 2021.

The match was played at Behnam Mohammadi Stadium in Masjed Soleyman.