Naft Masjed Soleyman 2–1 Darya Babol

Naft Masjed Soleyman

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Darya Babol

2/27/2024

Azadegan League · Round 21Behnam Mohammadi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Naft Masjed Soleyman48%

×Draw30%

Darya Babol22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Naft Masjed SoleymanExpected goals in this matchDarya Babol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.71

Naft Masjed Soleyman

1.21

Darya Babol

0.71

Naft Masjed Soleyman creates 70% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 34 away

1.29

creates per match

0.71

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Naft Masjed Soleyman

1.29

Darya Babol

0.71

allows per match

Naft Masjed Soleyman

0.71

Darya Babol

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Naft Masjed Soleyman+0.00on par

Darya Babol+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naft Masjed Soleyman ↓

Darya Babol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Naft Masjed Soleyman or draw

78%

Naft Masjed Soleyman or Darya Babol

70%

Draw or Darya Babol

52%

Winning margin

Naft Masjed Soleyman wins by 2+

21%

Darya Babol wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Naft Masjed Soleyman 1+ goals

70%

Naft Masjed Soleyman 2+ goals

34%

Naft Masjed Soleyman 3+ goals

12%

Darya Babol 1+ goals

51%

Darya Babol 2+ goals

16%

Darya Babol 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Naft Masjed Soleyman (draw refunded)

69%

Darya Babol (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naft Masjed Soleyman at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.71 · 34 matches

Darya Babol away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.12 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naft Masjed Soleyman attack 1.29 + Darya Babol defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.21

Darya Babol attack 0.71 + Naft Masjed Soleyman defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Naft Masjed Soleyman scores more

48%

level

30%

Darya Babol scores more

22%

Naft Masjed Soleyman at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Naft Masjed Soleyman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff