Darya Babol 1–2 Naft Masjed Soleyman

Darya Babol

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Naft Masjed Soleyman

9/25/2023

Azadegan League · Round 4Simorgh Martyrs Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Darya Babol42%

×Draw30%

Naft Masjed Soleyman28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Darya BabolExpected goals in this matchNaft Masjed Soleyman

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

0.90

Darya Babol

1.18

Naft Masjed Soleyman

0.90

Darya Babol creates 31% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 34 away

1.15

creates per match

0.94

0.85

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Darya Babol

1.15

Naft Masjed Soleyman

0.94

allows per match

Darya Babol

0.85

Naft Masjed Soleyman

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Darya Babol+0.00on par

Naft Masjed Soleyman+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Darya Babol ↓

Naft Masjed Soleyman →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Darya Babol or draw

72%

Darya Babol or Naft Masjed Soleyman

70%

Draw or Naft Masjed Soleyman

58%

Winning margin

Darya Babol wins by 2+

18%

Naft Masjed Soleyman wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Darya Babol 1+ goals

69%

Darya Babol 2+ goals

33%

Darya Babol 3+ goals

12%

Naft Masjed Soleyman 1+ goals

59%

Naft Masjed Soleyman 2+ goals

23%

Naft Masjed Soleyman 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Darya Babol (draw refunded)

60%

Naft Masjed Soleyman (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Darya Babol at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.85 · 33 matches

Naft Masjed Soleyman away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.21 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Darya Babol attack 1.15 + Naft Masjed Soleyman defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.18

Naft Masjed Soleyman attack 0.94 + Darya Babol defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Darya Babol scores more

42%

level

30%

Naft Masjed Soleyman scores more

28%

Darya Babol at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Darya Babol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff