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Naft Masjed Soleyman vs Ario Eslamshahr — Azadegan League 2018

Naft Masjed Soleyman
Naft Masjed Soleyman
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Ario Eslamshahr
Ario Eslamshahr
11/10/2024Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 10Behnam Mohammadi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Naft Masjed Soleyman43%
×Draw32%
Ario Eslamshahr25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naft Masjed Soleyman
1.06
Ario Eslamshahr
0.74

Naft Masjed Soleyman creates 43% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 51 away

creates per match

Naft Masjed Soleyman
1.29
Ario Eslamshahr
0.78

allows per match

Naft Masjed Soleyman
0.71
Ario Eslamshahr
0.84

finishing

Naft Masjed Soleyman+0.00on par
Ario Eslamshahr+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naft Masjed Soleyman ↓

Ario Eslamshahr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Naft Masjed Soleyman or draw
75%
Naft Masjed Soleyman or Ario Eslamshahr
68%
Draw or Ario Eslamshahr
57%

Winning margin

Naft Masjed Soleyman wins by 2+
17%
Ario Eslamshahr wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Naft Masjed Soleyman 1+ goals
65%
Naft Masjed Soleyman 2+ goals
29%
Naft Masjed Soleyman 3+ goals
9%
Ario Eslamshahr 1+ goals
52%
Ario Eslamshahr 2+ goals
17%
Ario Eslamshahr 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Naft Masjed Soleyman (draw refunded)
63%
Ario Eslamshahr (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naft Masjed Soleyman at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.71 · 34 matches

Ario Eslamshahr away — creates 0.78, concedes 0.84 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naft Masjed Soleyman attack 1.29 + Ario Eslamshahr defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.06

Ario Eslamshahr attack 0.78 + Naft Masjed Soleyman defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Naft Masjed Soleyman scores more
43%
level
32%
Ario Eslamshahr scores more
25%

Naft Masjed Soleyman at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Naft Masjed Soleyman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Naft Masjed Soleyman 1–1 Ario Eslamshahr

Naft Masjed Soleyman and Ario Eslamshahr drew 1-1 in Azadegan League on November 10, 2024.

The match was played at Behnam Mohammadi Stadium in Masjed Soleyman.