Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ario Eslamshahr vs Naft Masjed Soleyman — Azadegan League 2018

Ario Eslamshahr
Ario Eslamshahr
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Naft Masjed Soleyman
Naft Masjed Soleyman
4/4/2025Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 27Imam Khomeini Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Ario Eslamshahr42%
×Draw34%
Naft Masjed Soleyman24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ario Eslamshahr
0.99
Naft Masjed Soleyman
0.67

Ario Eslamshahr creates 48% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 34 away

creates per match

Ario Eslamshahr
0.78
Naft Masjed Soleyman
0.94

allows per match

Ario Eslamshahr
0.41
Naft Masjed Soleyman
1.21

finishing

Ario Eslamshahr+0.00on par
Naft Masjed Soleyman+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ario Eslamshahr ↓

Naft Masjed Soleyman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–113%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
49%51%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Ario Eslamshahr or draw
76%
Ario Eslamshahr or Naft Masjed Soleyman
66%
Draw or Naft Masjed Soleyman
58%

Winning margin

Ario Eslamshahr wins by 2+
16%
Naft Masjed Soleyman wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Ario Eslamshahr 1+ goals
63%
Ario Eslamshahr 2+ goals
26%
Ario Eslamshahr 3+ goals
8%
Naft Masjed Soleyman 1+ goals
49%
Naft Masjed Soleyman 2+ goals
15%
Naft Masjed Soleyman 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Ario Eslamshahr (draw refunded)
64%
Naft Masjed Soleyman (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ario Eslamshahr at home — creates 0.78, concedes 0.41 · 51 matches

Naft Masjed Soleyman away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.21 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ario Eslamshahr attack 0.78 + Naft Masjed Soleyman defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.99

Naft Masjed Soleyman attack 0.94 + Ario Eslamshahr defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ario Eslamshahr scores more
42%
level
34%
Naft Masjed Soleyman scores more
24%

Ario Eslamshahr at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ario Eslamshahr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ario Eslamshahr vs Naft Masjed Soleyman

Ario Eslamshahr beat Naft Masjed Soleyman 3-1 in Azadegan League on April 4, 2025.

The match was played at Imam Khomeini Stadium in Eslamshahr.