Naft Gachsaran 0–0 Darya Babol: Result & Stats

Naft Gachsaran

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Darya Babol

9/17/2023

Azadegan League · Round 3Naft Gachsaran Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Naft Gachsaran41%

×Draw33%

Darya Babol26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Naft GachsaranExpected goals in this matchDarya Babol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.99

0.72

Naft Gachsaran

0.99

Darya Babol

0.72

Naft Gachsaran creates 38% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 34 away

0.86

creates per match

0.71

0.74

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Naft Gachsaran

0.86

Darya Babol

0.71

allows per match

Naft Gachsaran

0.74

Darya Babol

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Naft Gachsaran+0.00on par

Darya Babol+0.00on par

Total goals

Under75
Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naft Gachsaran ↓

Darya Babol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–113%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–16%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

51%49%2.5

25%75%3.5

9%91%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Naft Gachsaran or draw

74%

Naft Gachsaran or Darya Babol

67%

Draw or Darya Babol

59%

Winning margin

Naft Gachsaran wins by 2+

16%

Darya Babol wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Naft Gachsaran 1+ goals

63%

Naft Gachsaran 2+ goals

26%

Naft Gachsaran 3+ goals

8%

Darya Babol 1+ goals

51%

Darya Babol 2+ goals

16%

Darya Babol 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Naft Gachsaran (draw refunded)

61%

Darya Babol (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naft Gachsaran at home — creates 0.86, concedes 0.74 · 50 matches

Darya Babol away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.12 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naft Gachsaran attack 0.86 + Darya Babol defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.99

Darya Babol attack 0.71 + Naft Gachsaran defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Naft Gachsaran scores more

41%

level

33%

Darya Babol scores more

26%

Naft Gachsaran at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Naft Gachsaran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff