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Darya Babol vs Naft Gachsaran — Azadegan League 2018

Darya Babol
Darya Babol
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Naft Gachsaran
Naft Gachsaran
2/21/2024Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 20Simorgh Martyrs Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Darya Babol43%
×Draw31%
Naft Gachsaran26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Darya Babol
1.15
Naft Gachsaran
0.82

Darya Babol creates 40% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 51 away

creates per match

Darya Babol
1.15
Naft Gachsaran
0.80

allows per match

Darya Babol
0.85
Naft Gachsaran
1.14

finishing

Darya Babol+0.00on par
Naft Gachsaran+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Darya Babol ↓

Naft Gachsaran →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Darya Babol or draw
74%
Darya Babol or Naft Gachsaran
69%
Draw or Naft Gachsaran
57%

Winning margin

Darya Babol wins by 2+
18%
Naft Gachsaran wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Darya Babol 1+ goals
68%
Darya Babol 2+ goals
32%
Darya Babol 3+ goals
11%
Naft Gachsaran 1+ goals
56%
Naft Gachsaran 2+ goals
20%
Naft Gachsaran 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Darya Babol (draw refunded)
62%
Naft Gachsaran (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Darya Babol at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.85 · 33 matches

Naft Gachsaran away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.14 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Darya Babol attack 1.15 + Naft Gachsaran defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.15

Naft Gachsaran attack 0.80 + Darya Babol defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Darya Babol scores more
43%
level
31%
Naft Gachsaran scores more
26%

Darya Babol at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Darya Babol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Darya Babol 1–4 Naft Gachsaran

Naft Gachsaran beat Darya Babol 4-1 in Azadegan League on February 21, 2024.

The match was played at Simorgh Martyrs Stadium in Ziar Kola.