Naft Gachsaran 0–0 Be'sat Kermanshah

Naft Gachsaran

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Be'sat Kermanshah

1/30/2025

Azadegan League · Round 19Ghadir Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Naft Gachsaran42%

×Draw35%

Be'sat Kermanshah24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Naft GachsaranExpected goals in this matchBe'sat Kermanshah

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

0.65

Naft Gachsaran

0.96

Be'sat Kermanshah

0.65

Naft Gachsaran creates 48% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 33 away

0.86

creates per match

0.55

0.74

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Naft Gachsaran

0.86

Be'sat Kermanshah

0.55

allows per match

Naft Gachsaran

0.74

Be'sat Kermanshah

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Naft Gachsaran+0.00on par

Be'sat Kermanshah+0.00on par

Total goals

Under78
Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No71
Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naft Gachsaran ↓

Be'sat Kermanshah →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–020%

0–113%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–16%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (20%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

80%20%1.5

48%52%2.5

22%78%3.5

8%92%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

Naft Gachsaran or draw

76%

Naft Gachsaran or Be'sat Kermanshah

65%

Draw or Be'sat Kermanshah

58%

Winning margin

Naft Gachsaran wins by 2+

16%

Be'sat Kermanshah wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Naft Gachsaran 1+ goals

62%

Naft Gachsaran 2+ goals

25%

Naft Gachsaran 3+ goals

7%

Be'sat Kermanshah 1+ goals

48%

Be'sat Kermanshah 2+ goals

14%

Be'sat Kermanshah 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Naft Gachsaran (draw refunded)

63%

Be'sat Kermanshah (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

17%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naft Gachsaran at home — creates 0.86, concedes 0.74 · 50 matches

Be'sat Kermanshah away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.06 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naft Gachsaran attack 0.86 + Be'sat Kermanshah defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.96

Be'sat Kermanshah attack 0.55 + Naft Gachsaran defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Naft Gachsaran scores more

42%

level

35%

Be'sat Kermanshah scores more

24%

Naft Gachsaran at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Naft Gachsaran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

75'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Naft Gachsaran vs Be'sat Kermanshah

Naft Gachsaran and Be'sat Kermanshah drew 0-0 in Azadegan League on January 30, 2025.

The match was played at Ghadir Stadium in Ahwaz.

Naft Gachsaran vs Be'sat Kermanshah — Azadegan League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Naft Gachsaran vs Be'sat Kermanshah