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Be'sat Kermanshah vs Naft Gachsaran — Azadegan League 2018

Be'sat Kermanshah
Be'sat Kermanshah
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Naft Gachsaran
Naft Gachsaran
A. Seifi 78'
E. Mirjavan 40', 22'
9/17/2024Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 2Azadi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Be'sat Kermanshah43%
×Draw33%
Naft Gachsaran24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Be'sat Kermanshah
1.02
Naft Gachsaran
0.69

Be'sat Kermanshah creates 48% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 51 away

creates per match

Be'sat Kermanshah
0.91
Naft Gachsaran
0.80

allows per match

Be'sat Kermanshah
0.58
Naft Gachsaran
1.14

finishing

Be'sat Kermanshah+0.00on par
Naft Gachsaran+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Be'sat Kermanshah ↓

Naft Gachsaran →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
25%75%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Be'sat Kermanshah or draw
76%
Be'sat Kermanshah or Naft Gachsaran
67%
Draw or Naft Gachsaran
57%

Winning margin

Be'sat Kermanshah wins by 2+
17%
Naft Gachsaran wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Be'sat Kermanshah 1+ goals
64%
Be'sat Kermanshah 2+ goals
27%
Be'sat Kermanshah 3+ goals
8%
Naft Gachsaran 1+ goals
50%
Naft Gachsaran 2+ goals
15%
Naft Gachsaran 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Be'sat Kermanshah (draw refunded)
64%
Naft Gachsaran (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Be'sat Kermanshah at home — creates 0.91, concedes 0.58 · 33 matches

Naft Gachsaran away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.14 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Be'sat Kermanshah attack 0.91 + Naft Gachsaran defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.02

Naft Gachsaran attack 0.80 + Be'sat Kermanshah defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Be'sat Kermanshah scores more
43%
level
33%
Naft Gachsaran scores more
24%

Be'sat Kermanshah at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Be'sat Kermanshah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
E. Mirjavan
40'
E. Mirjavan
78'
A. Seifi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Be'sat Kermanshah vs Naft Gachsaran

Be'sat Kermanshah beat Naft Gachsaran 3-0 in Azadegan League on September 17, 2024.

Goals: E. Mirjavan (22', 40'), A. Seifi (78').

The match was played at Azadi Stadium in Kermanshah.