Naft Gachsaran 0–0 Ario Eslamshahr: Result & Stats

Naft Gachsaran

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ario Eslamshahr

8/29/2025

Azadegan League · Round 1Naft Gachsaran Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Naft Gachsaran35%

×Draw35%

Ario Eslamshahr30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Naft GachsaranExpected goals in this matchArio Eslamshahr

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.85

0.76

Naft Gachsaran

0.85

Ario Eslamshahr

0.76

Naft Gachsaran creates 12% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 51 away

0.86

creates per match

0.78

0.74

allows per match

0.84

creates per match

Naft Gachsaran

0.86

Ario Eslamshahr

0.78

allows per match

Naft Gachsaran

0.74

Ario Eslamshahr

0.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Naft Gachsaran+0.00on par

Ario Eslamshahr+0.00on par

Total goals

Under78
Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No70
Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naft Gachsaran ↓

Ario Eslamshahr →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–020%

0–115%

0–26%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–15%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (20%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

80%20%1.5

48%52%2.5

22%78%3.5

8%92%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

Naft Gachsaran or draw

70%

Naft Gachsaran or Ario Eslamshahr

65%

Draw or Ario Eslamshahr

65%

Winning margin

Naft Gachsaran wins by 2+

12%

Ario Eslamshahr wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Naft Gachsaran 1+ goals

57%

Naft Gachsaran 2+ goals

21%

Naft Gachsaran 3+ goals

5%

Ario Eslamshahr 1+ goals

53%

Ario Eslamshahr 2+ goals

18%

Ario Eslamshahr 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Naft Gachsaran (draw refunded)

54%

Ario Eslamshahr (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

18%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naft Gachsaran at home — creates 0.86, concedes 0.74 · 50 matches

Ario Eslamshahr away — creates 0.78, concedes 0.84 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naft Gachsaran attack 0.86 + Ario Eslamshahr defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.85

Ario Eslamshahr attack 0.78 + Naft Gachsaran defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Naft Gachsaran scores more

35%

level

35%

Ario Eslamshahr scores more

30%

Naft Gachsaran at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Naft Gachsaran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff