Ario Eslamshahr 1–1 Naft Gachsaran: Result & Stats

Ario Eslamshahr

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Naft Gachsaran

4/16/2025

Azadegan League · Round 29Imam Khomeini Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Ario Eslamshahr43%

×Draw35%

Naft Gachsaran22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ario EslamshahrExpected goals in this matchNaft Gachsaran

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

0.60

Ario Eslamshahr

0.96

Naft Gachsaran

0.60

Ario Eslamshahr creates 60% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 51 away

0.78

creates per match

0.80

0.41

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Ario Eslamshahr

0.78

Naft Gachsaran

0.80

allows per match

Ario Eslamshahr

0.41

Naft Gachsaran

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ario Eslamshahr+0.00on par

Naft Gachsaran+0.00on par

Total goals

Under79
Over21

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No72
Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ario Eslamshahr ↓

Naft Gachsaran →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–021%

0–113%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–16%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (21%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

79%21%1.5

46%54%2.5

21%79%3.5

7%93%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

Ario Eslamshahr or draw

78%

Ario Eslamshahr or Naft Gachsaran

65%

Draw or Naft Gachsaran

57%

Winning margin

Ario Eslamshahr wins by 2+

16%

Naft Gachsaran wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Ario Eslamshahr 1+ goals

62%

Ario Eslamshahr 2+ goals

25%

Ario Eslamshahr 3+ goals

7%

Naft Gachsaran 1+ goals

45%

Naft Gachsaran 2+ goals

12%

Naft Gachsaran 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Ario Eslamshahr (draw refunded)

66%

Naft Gachsaran (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

16%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ario Eslamshahr at home — creates 0.78, concedes 0.41 · 51 matches

Naft Gachsaran away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.14 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ario Eslamshahr attack 0.78 + Naft Gachsaran defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.96

Naft Gachsaran attack 0.80 + Ario Eslamshahr defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ario Eslamshahr scores more

43%

level

35%

Naft Gachsaran scores more

22%

Ario Eslamshahr at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ario Eslamshahr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff