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Naft Bandar Abbas vs Fajr Sepasi — Azadegan League 2018

Naft Bandar Abbas
Naft Bandar Abbas
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Fajr Sepasi
Fajr Sepasi
Ebrahim Salehi 40'
Saeed Zarei 3'
10/16/2024Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 7Khalij Fars Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Naft Bandar Abbas34%
×Draw34%
Fajr Sepasi31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naft Bandar Abbas
0.86
Fajr Sepasi
0.81

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 83 away

creates per match

Naft Bandar Abbas
0.91
Fajr Sepasi
1.04

allows per match

Naft Bandar Abbas
0.58
Fajr Sepasi
0.82

finishing

Naft Bandar Abbas+0.00on par
Fajr Sepasi+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naft Bandar Abbas ↓

Fajr Sepasi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–115%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
50%50%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Naft Bandar Abbas or draw
69%
Naft Bandar Abbas or Fajr Sepasi
66%
Draw or Fajr Sepasi
66%

Winning margin

Naft Bandar Abbas wins by 2+
12%
Fajr Sepasi wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Naft Bandar Abbas 1+ goals
58%
Naft Bandar Abbas 2+ goals
21%
Naft Bandar Abbas 3+ goals
6%
Fajr Sepasi 1+ goals
56%
Fajr Sepasi 2+ goals
19%
Fajr Sepasi 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Naft Bandar Abbas (draw refunded)
52%
Fajr Sepasi (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naft Bandar Abbas at home — creates 0.91, concedes 0.58 · 33 matches

Fajr Sepasi away — creates 1.04, concedes 0.82 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naft Bandar Abbas attack 0.91 + Fajr Sepasi defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.86

Fajr Sepasi attack 1.04 + Naft Bandar Abbas defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Naft Bandar Abbas scores more
34%
level
34%
Fajr Sepasi scores more
31%

Naft Bandar Abbas at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Naft Bandar Abbas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
Saeed Zarei
40'
Ebrahim Salehi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Naft Bandar Abbas 1–1 Fajr Sepasi

Naft Bandar Abbas and Fajr Sepasi drew 1-1 in Azadegan League on October 16, 2024.

Goals: Saeed Zarei (3'), Ebrahim Salehi (40').

The match was played at Khalij Fars Stadium in Bandar-Abbas.