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Fajr Sepasi vs Naft Bandar Abbas — Azadegan League 2018

Fajr Sepasi
Fajr Sepasi
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Naft Bandar Abbas
Naft Bandar Abbas
S. Jafari 68'
3/4/2025Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 24Hafezieh Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Fajr Sepasi50%
×Draw31%
Naft Bandar Abbas19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fajr Sepasi
1.20
Naft Bandar Abbas
0.62

Fajr Sepasi creates 94% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 34 away

creates per match

Fajr Sepasi
1.52
Naft Bandar Abbas
0.74

allows per match

Fajr Sepasi
0.50
Naft Bandar Abbas
0.88

finishing

Fajr Sepasi+0.00on par
Naft Bandar Abbas+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fajr Sepasi ↓

Naft Bandar Abbas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Fajr Sepasi or draw
81%
Fajr Sepasi or Naft Bandar Abbas
69%
Draw or Naft Bandar Abbas
50%

Winning margin

Fajr Sepasi wins by 2+
23%
Naft Bandar Abbas wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Fajr Sepasi 1+ goals
70%
Fajr Sepasi 2+ goals
34%
Fajr Sepasi 3+ goals
12%
Naft Bandar Abbas 1+ goals
46%
Naft Bandar Abbas 2+ goals
13%
Naft Bandar Abbas 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Fajr Sepasi (draw refunded)
72%
Naft Bandar Abbas (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fajr Sepasi at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.50 · 84 matches

Naft Bandar Abbas away — creates 0.74, concedes 0.88 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fajr Sepasi attack 1.52 + Naft Bandar Abbas defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.20

Naft Bandar Abbas attack 0.74 + Fajr Sepasi defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Fajr Sepasi scores more
50%
level
31%
Naft Bandar Abbas scores more
19%

Fajr Sepasi at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Fajr Sepasi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

68'
S. Jafari

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Fajr Sepasi 1–0 Naft Bandar Abbas

Fajr Sepasi beat Naft Bandar Abbas 1-0 in Azadegan League on March 4, 2025.

Goals: S. Jafari (68').

The match was played at Hafezieh Stadium in Shiraz.